Real Estate

Mortgage rates increased at a record pace in 2022, with the 10-year fixed mortgage rate doubling between March 2022 and December 2022. With inflation increasing, the Bank of England introduced several bank rate hikes, resulting in higher mortgage rates. In January 2024, the average 10-year fixed rate interest rate stood at 4.7 percent. As borrowing costs get higher, demand for housing is expected to decrease, leading to slower house price growth and a potential market downturn. 

After surging in 2021, the number of residential properties sold declined in 2022, reaching close to 1.3 million. Despite the number of transactions falling, this figure was higher than the period before the pandemic. The falling transaction volume also affected mortgage borrowing. In 2023, the value of new mortgage loans fell year-on-year for three quarters in a row. 

Homeowners with a mortgage loan usually lock in a fixed rate deal for two to ten years, meaning that after this period runs out, they need to renegotiate the terms of the loan. Many of the mortgages were taken out during the period of record-low mortgage rates and are likely to face notable increases in their monthly repayment. About five million homeowners are projected to see their deal expire by the end of 2026. About two million of these loans are projected to experience a monthly payment increase of up to 199 British pounds by 2026.

The number of U.S. home sales in the United States declined in 2023, after soaring in 2021.  A total of four million transactions of existing homes, including single-family, condo, and co-ops, were completed in 2023, down from 6.12 million in 2021. According to the forecast, the housing market is forecast to head for recovery in the next two years, with the number of sales reaching 5.6 million in 2025.

The housing boom during the coronavirus pandemic has demonstrated that being a homeowner is still an integral part of the American dream. Nevertheless, sentiment declined in the second half of 2022 and Americans across all generations agreed that the time was not right to buy a home. A combination of factors has led to house prices rocketing, making homeownership unaffordable for the average buyer. A survey among owners and renters found that the high home prices and unfavorable economic conditions were the two main barriers to making a home purchase. People who would like to purchase their own home need to save up a deposit, have a good credit score, and a steady and sufficient income to be approved for a mortgage. In 2022, mortgage rates experienced the most aggressive increase in history, making the total cost of homeownership substantially higher. Only 15 percent of U.S. renters could afford to become homeowners and in metros with highly competitive housing markets such as Los Angeles, CA, and Urban Honolulu, HI, this share was below five percent.

The median sales price of existing homes stood at 387,000 U.S. dollars in 2023 and was forecast to increase slightly until 2025. The development of the S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index shows that home prices experienced seven consecutive months of decline between June 2022 and January 2023, but this trend reversed in the following months. Despite mild fluctuations throughout the year, home prices in many metros are forecast to continue to grow, albeit at a much slower rate. 

The average monthly rent for all apartment types in the United States rose substantially in 2021. In 2023, rents began to soften, with November 2023 seeing a monthly rent for a two-bedroom apartment amounting to 1,317 U.S. dollars, down from 1,331 U.S. dollars a year ago.

Apartment rents vary widely from state to state. To afford a two-bedroom apartment in California, for example, a renter needed to earn an average hourly wage of nearly 42 U.S. dollars, which was approximately double the average wage in North Carolina and three times as much as the average wage in Arkansas. In fact, rental costs were considerably higher than the hourly minimum wage in all U.S. states.

In 2023, some of the most expensive states to rent an apartment saw prices drop. Nevertheless, rental prices increased in most states as of October 2023. In North Dakota, the annual rental growth reached 10 percent. 

Portugal, Canada, and the United States were the countries with the highest house price to income ratio in 2023. In all three countries, the index exceeded 130 index points, while the average for all OECD countries stood at 117.5 index points. The index measures the development of housing affordability and is calculated by dividing nominal house price by nominal disposable income per head, with 2015 set as a base year when the index amounted to 100. An index value of 120, for example, would mean that house price growth has outpaced income growth by 20 percent since 2015. 

House prices started to rise gradually after the global financial crisis (2007–2008), but this trend accelerated with the pandemic. The countries with advanced economies, which usually have mature housing markets, experienced stronger growth than countries with emerging economies. Real house price growth (accounting for inflation) peaked in 2022 and has since lost some of the gain. Although, many countries experienced a decline in house prices, the global house price index shows that property prices in 2023 were still substantially higher than before COVID-19. 

In the past, house prices have grown faster than rents. However, the home affordability has been declining notably, with a direct impact on rental prices. As people struggle to buy a property of their own, they often turn to rental accommodation. This has resulted in a growing demand for rental apartments and soaring rental prices.

House prices in the UK rose dramatically during the coronavirus pandemic, with growth slowing down in 2022 and turning negative in 2023. The year-on-year annual house price change peaked at 14 percent in July 2022. In June 2024, house prices increased by 2.7 percent. According to the Nationwide Building Society, the average house price exceeded 265,000 British pounds in 2022.

The trend of a growing residential real estate market was not exclusive to the UK during the pandemic. Likewise, many European countries experienced falling prices in 2023. When comparing residential property RHPI (price index in real terms, e.g. corrected for inflation), countries such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain also saw prices decline. Sweden, one of the countries with the fastest growing residential markets, saw one of the largest declines in prices.

The easing of the lockdown was followed by a dramatic increase in home sales. In November 2020, the number of mortgage approvals reached an all-time high of over 107,000. One of the reasons for the housing boom were the low mortgage rates, allowing home buyers to take out a loan with an interest rate as low as 2.5 percent. That changed as the Bank of England started to raise the base lending rate, resulting in higher borrowing costs and a decline in homebuyer sentiment.

The average Canadian house price declined slightly in 2023, after four years of consecutive growth. The average house price stood at 678,282 Canadian dollars in 2023 and was forecast to reach 722,063 Canadian dollars by 2025. 

The number of housing units sold is also set to increase over the two-year period. From 443,511 units sold, the annual number of home sales in the country is expected to fall to 489,661 in 2024. British Columbia and Ontario have traditionally been housing markets with prices above the Canadian average, and both are set to witness an increase in sales in 2024. 

When it comes to consumer confidence in the performance of the real estate market in the next six months, Canadian consumers in 2024 mostly expected that the market would go up. A slightly lower share of the respondents believed real estate prices would remain the same.

The average price of detached and duplex houses in the biggest cities in Germany varied between approximately 5,000 euros and 10,000 euros per square meter in the second quarter of 2023. Housing was most expensive in Munich, where the square meter price of houses amounted to 9,931 euros. Conversely, Berlin was most affordable, with the square meter price at 4,802 euros. 

House prices maintained an upward trend for more than a decade, with 2020 and 2021 experiencing exceptionally high growth rates. In 2021, the nominal year-on-year change exceeded 10 percent. Nevertheless, the second half of 2022 saw the market slowing, with the annual percentage change turning negative in the fourth quarter of the year and that trend continuing in 2023. Another way to examine the price growth is through the house price index, which uses 2015 as a base. In the second quarter of 2023, the house price index measured about 150 percent, which means that a house bought in 2015 would have appreciated by 50 percent during this period.

Housing affordability depends greatly on income: High-income areas often tend to have more expensive housing, which does not necessarily make them unaffordable. The house price to income index measures the development of the cost of housing relative to income. In the first quarter of 2023, the index value stood at 120.8, meaning that since 2015, house price growth has outpaced income growth by about 21 percent. Compared with the average for the euro area, this value was higher.

As of July 2024, the mean purchase price of housing in Seoul, South Korea amounted to around 839 million South Korean won. The average price of detached houses amounted to around 1.13 billion South Korean won while the price of apartments was about one billion South Korean won. 

Among all housing types, apartments are the most expensive, costing more than one billion South Korean won on average. Living in apartments is typical for Seoul, as an increasing number of citizens move towards the city, causing high population density. As of 2022, more than 40 percent of all households were living in apartments, excluding alternative housing, such as officetels or goshiwons.

Based on the average selling price of apartments in Seoul, Gangnam is the most expensive area in Seoul to live in, with an average sales price of around 2.2 billion South Korean won. The area became internationally known due to the viral YouTube hit Gangnam Style by South Korean artist PSY. Since Gangnam is known for its wealthy citizens, the song was inspired by their mannerisms.

Retail properties had the highest capitalization rates in the United States in 2023, followed by offices. The cap rate for office real estate was 6.54 percent in the fourth quarter of the year and was forecast to rise further to 7.39 percent in 2024. Cap rates measure the expected rate of return on investment, and show the net operating income of a property as a percentage share of the current asset value. While a higher cap rate indicates a higher rate of return, it also suggests a higher risk.

The increase in cap rates is a consequence of a repricing in the commercial real estate sector. According to the National NCREIF Property Return Index, prices for commercial real estate declined across all property types in 2023. Rental growth was slow during the same period, resulting in a negative annual return. The increase in cap rates reflects the increased risk in the investment environment.

Between 2014 and 2021, commercial property prices in the U.S. enjoyed steady growth. Access to credit with low interest rates facilitated economic growth and real estate investment. As inflation surged in the following two years, lending policy tightened. That had a significant effect on the sector. First, it worsened sentiment among occupiers. Second, it led to a decline in demand for commercial spaces and commercial real estate investment volumes. Uncertainty about the future development of interest rates and occupier demand further contributed to the repricing of real estate assets.  

The price of residential property in New Zealand was the highest in the Auckland region in June 2024, with an average sale price of around one million New Zealand dollars. The most populated city in the country, Auckland has consistently reported higher house prices compared to most other regions. Buying property in New Zealand, particularly in its major cities, is expensive. The nation has one of the highest house-price-to-income ratios in the world.

The residential housing market in Auckland is competitive. Prices have been slowly increasing; the Auckland region experienced an annual increase in the average residential house price compared to the same month in the previous year. The price of residential property in Auckland was the highest in Auckland City, with an average sale price of around 1.26 million New Zealand dollars.

Due to the rising cost of real estate, an increasing number of New Zealanders who want to own their own property are taking on mortgages. Most residential mortgage lending in New Zealand went to owner-occupier borrowers, followed by first home buyers. In addition to mortgage lending, under the KiwiSaver HomeStart initiative, first-home buyers in New Zealand can apply to withdraw all or part of their KiwiSaver retirement savings to assist with purchasing a first home. However, even with a large initial deposit, it may take decades for many borrowers to pay off their mortgage.